Obama Investments Losing Value, Mc'Cain Gains

The evil speculators over at InTrade bid down Obama by more than 10% over the last month and have bumped Mc'Cain. Obama's price is still much higher, but the folks who risk real money on these things are obviously seeing some warts on The One. The post-convention trading will be interesting. Stay tuned.

No-Nothing Krugman

One of the reasons The New York Times is going broke is that they pay fools like Paul Krugman huge sums of money to write the kind of drivel left wing moonbats post for free. His brilliant thesis today is...are you ready? Republicans are stupid! Next week he will probably call them pooh-pooh heads.

His evidence is unintentionally ironic and hilarious:

So the G.O.P. has found its issue for the 2008 election. For the next three months the party plans to keep chanting: “Drill here! Drill now! Drill here! Drill now! Four legs good, two legs bad!” O.K., I added that last part...

"What I mean, instead, is that know-nothingism — the insistence that there are simple, brute-force, instant-gratification answers to every problem, and that there’s something effeminate and weak about anyone who suggests otherwise — has become the core of Republican policy and political strategy. The party’s de facto slogan has become: “Real men don’t think things through.”

Instant gratification? Isn't it Democrats who are telling us that drilling won't solve anything because it won't be available for years and won't do anything to lower prices today? Obviously, Krugman doesn't believe that the proposed repeat of Jimmy Carter's windfall profits tax disaster isn't the brute force of government confiscating private property because Democrats have decreed arbitrarily that oil companies make "excess profits". I guess he missed the class where the difference between profit and profit margin was explained.

Apparently, Krugman also thinks that scapegoating oil speculators for reflecting current events in bidding on future prices is also not "brute force" and is well thought through. I know the Democrat Party doesn't know or care how commodities markets work, but for someone who calls himself an economist to ignore that piece of Democrat stupidity is...well, stupid. I guess the opinion of just about every knowledgeable person up to Ben Bernanke that speculators have little or nothing to do with current prices is something Krugman thought through for about a second and then asked "What was the question?"

In the case of oil, this takes the form of pretending that more drilling would produce fast relief at the gas pump. In fact, earlier this week Republicans in Congress actually claimed credit for the recent fall in oil prices: “The market is responding to the fact that we are here talking,” said Representative John Shadegg.

The Republicans may be right, but Krugman dismisses them with an ignorant sneer. All speculation and investing is based on predicting future events based on current ones. Hence the name "futures market". What cereal box did this clown get his ECON degree from anyway?

Krugman then moves lazily along with the same shopworn nonsense about Iraq that ignores Saddam's support of every terrorist that came knocking, numerous treaty violations, the oil for food scandal, pre-war transports to Syria and most recently, the fact that we just removed 500 tons of yellow cake Uranium from that country. Joe Wilson call your office.

It's not surprising that The NYT would employ such a left wing ideologue as a well paid regular columnist. Although they could hire any number of Marxist hacks from the Huffington Post for half the price.

Congress Moves to Do Nothing on Oil

First it was the Oil company profits, then it was OPEC. Speculators are the latest scapegoat offered to the ignorant masses in order to cover up congress' incompetence and cowardice.

On Tuesday, Sen. Byron Dorgan, a Democrat from North Dakota, called that "excessive, relentless speculation."
In 2000, 37 percent of the people in the oil futures market were speculators, Dorgan said. Now, speculators make up 71 percent of the market.
"They've broken the market," Dorgan said.

The fact that more investors are participating in the market has nothing to do with the current price spike. If anything, it reflects increasing investor recognition of underlying supply and demand issues economic idiots like Dorgan continue to ignore. Futures speculators can make just as much money betting the market will go down as up. Additionally, the purchase of a contract requires a seller. That seller is obviously standing pat on the current price. Further, the fact that most of the new money in oil futures is coming from pension funds and other large investment pools is obviously lost on congressional demagogues.

Harry Reid complains about Republicans coming to their senses:

"Forty-seven different Republican senators have spoken at one time or another on the need to do something about speculation," Reid said. "That was before they heard from the oil companies, and I guess some people on Wall Street.
"Now, suddenly, they don't think speculation's a big deal."


The Horror! You mean Republicans listened to the people who actually do this for a living? How dare they? Don't they understand that facts get in the way of Democrats no growth Euro-Socialist agenda?

One of things Republicans heard was this:

"Yes, speculation is a big deal, said Sen. John Ensign, a Republican from Nevada, but he warned that curbing speculation in the United States could mean that foreign markets will take over."

That's right. Democrats either don't understand or don't care that oil is traded on futures markets throughout the world and that hamstringing American trading will just chase capital to friendlier places.

Then we have the venal T. Boone Pickens mucking up the conversation with his dishonest promotion of wind power that is really designed to protect and expand the publicly funded subsidies and tax breaks for his huge investment in that technology.

Another Senate panel heard Tuesday from Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens. He warned lawmakers that the smart response to the oil price shock is not to drill more, but to expand solar and wind power.

And when congress listens to a real expert and economist like Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, they just stick their fingers in their ears and shout "la la la":

Bernanke: Another concern that has been raised is that financial speculation has added markedly to upward pressures on oil prices. Certainly, investor interest in oil and other commodities has increased substantially of late. However, if financial speculation were pushing oil prices above the levels consistent with the fundamentals of supply and demand, we would expect inventories of crude oil and petroleum products to increase as supply rose and demand fell. But in fact, available data on oil inventories show notable declines over the past year.

Then a Democrat asks for advice he can ignore:

Question from Senator Tom Carper (D-DE): "The third factor that we keep coming back to is the role that speculation is playing. We've touched on this at least indirectly here today. Just give us some advice. I think we're going to debate -- seriously debate, probably before the beginning of next month, legislation dealing with speculation to try to curb the excesses that may be occurring there. If you could give us some advice, it would be timely and much appreciated."

Bernanke:

Well, I think, as I said, based on the evidence that's available, I would not estimate that speculation or particularly manipulation is a significant part of the rise in oil prices. That said, the CFTC and others are looking at the data and trying to evaluate that. These are very difficult matters. We don't want to do anything that will stop the futures markets from having their legitimate functions, serving their legitimate functions of providing liquidity and hedging.
So, you know, my advice would be to go slow and carefully and to take the insights that you get from the CFTC and others who are directly -- associated directly overseeing these activities. I would -- despite the concerns -- and I fully understand the concerns about high gas prices -- I don't think it's likely that you can have a big effect on gas prices with short-term moves in the futures markets. And I would urge careful and deliberate action in this area.

Mel Martinez, the feckless and pusillanimous GOP Senator from my state obviously doesn't like what he's hearing. So he'll rephrase the question, hoping for a different answer:

And a question from Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL): "I wonder if you might dwell just for a moment on the speculation side as to why you don't see that as a fundamental part of the problem, but then also what we could do to be more helpful in the area of transparency and oversight."

Bernanke:
Well, there would be -- there are a number of pieces of evidence against the view that speculation is a primary force. I mention in my testimony the absence of hoarding or inventories that you would expect to see if speculation was driving prices above the supply/demand equilibrium. There are a number of studies which show that there is little or no connection between the open interest taken by noncommercial traders in futures markets and the movement -- subsequent movements in prices. It's also interesting to note that there are many commodities, or at least some commodities, that are not even traded on futures markets, like iron ore, for example, which have had very large increases in prices. So I think the evidence is terribly weak.

In short, we have a corrupt, incompetent and craven congress holding the future of our economy and national security in their hands, doing everything in their power to stand in the way of the people's economic and political needs and desires. They can try to place blame wherever they want, but they and the thinking American public know exactly where it belongs.